On Friday, the Commerce Department’s revision to fourth quarter GDP indicated that the U.S. economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015, consistent with our expectations. In the year ahead, growth will most likely moderate toward 2%, our estimate of its longer-term … Read more
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Recent blog posts by Joe Davis
Debate about the timing of “liftoff”—a hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate—has intensified significantly over the past few weeks, ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on September 17. Market participants are debating whether the initial increase … Read more
Since nominal yields going out 6 years or more are currently negative in several developed markets in Europe, many investors have been asking if investing in bonds with negative yields means they are “locking in” a loss. It is a … Read more
Emerging markets have been a favorite destination for global capital since the financial crisis, given the weak growth and low interest rates on offer from much of the developed world. Although they have taken a one-two punch of late from … Read more
Just as the Federal Reserve was bracing markets for its first interest rate hike since 2006 to head off any pickup in inflation, along came the drop in the price of oil.
And it’s been a big drop—even for an … Read more
Being comfortable with uncertainty, being prepared, and not being overconfident are essential life skills.
It is no coincidence that these skills serve as strong investment principles and help us look at the markets and economy with a healthy dose of … Read more
In the Chinese city of Ordos, empty skyscrapers loom over largely empty roads, empty town plazas, and empty schools. It’s China’s best-known ghost town. The empty buildings in Ordos and other places—started as part of an ambitious government plan to … Read more