On Friday, the Commerce Department’s revision to fourth quarter GDP indicated that the U.S. economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015, consistent with our expectations. In the year ahead, growth will most likely moderate toward 2%, our estimate of its longer-term … Read more
Tag Archives: economic growth
Debate about the timing of “liftoff”—a hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate—has intensified significantly over the past few weeks, ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on September 17. Market participants are debating whether the initial increase … Read more
A few weeks ago, I reviewed preliminary reports on first-quarter growth in the U.S. economy. The news was grim: annualized shrinkage of 0.7%. “The economy has now contracted in three separate quarters since the recession ended in mid-2009,” The Wall … Read more
There are few things that destroy an economy as thoroughly as deflation. When prices are expected to fall, spending is delayed. As spending is delayed, prices fall further. In a heavily indebted economy, the real cost of debt goes up. … Read more
Being comfortable with uncertainty, being prepared, and not being overconfident are essential life skills.
It is no coincidence that these skills serve as strong investment principles and help us look at the markets and economy with a healthy dose of … Read more
I learned early in my life that humility is an important virtue regardless of the endeavor. Receiving the occasional B when I had expected an A or enduring a loss when my team was a heavy favorite taught me that … Read more