Economy

Insights, research, and analysis on breaking economic news and market trends.

Is there a gorilla in our midst?

In a famous experiment, psychologists Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons asked people to watch a video of people playing basketball and count the number of passes. Technically, the answer is 15, but that misses the point of the experiment. …

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Recent Posts

Listening to the market—not the pundits

Everyone who is not on vacation appears to be focused on the uncertainty created by the lack of a resolution to the most recent government funding crisis. I wish I could add some value with respect to the discussion of …

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Monetary policy’s sacrificial lambs

A few months ago, my wife and I opened a small savings account for our young children to help teach them the power of saving. Compound interest. All that good stuff.

We talked about taking their pennies, dimes, and birthday …

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A pothole, not a soft patch

Every Wednesday night, my next-door neighbor and I tend to take out our garbage at about the same time. Don’t know how that happens, but we usually get to talking about the usual topics—our kids, sports, the weather. And every …

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The balance sheet recession

It was such a small news item in the paper I almost missed it. A hometown bank was being acquired by a rival. For a fraction of its estimated value. The reason: large real estate losses.

As I travel around …

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How history might see the stimulus

A Word of Clarification
My blog post below has struck a chord with some of you. As a Vanguard blogger, I am charged with sharing my personal and professional perspectives on issues facing investors. The post, prompted by a discussion

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More on the fiscal outlook

My recent post on the government’s fiscal outlook generated several thoughtful comments.

Two readers mentioned Paul Krugman’s op-ed on Social Security in The New York Times. It is true, as Krugman points out, that Social Security is only a …

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Thoughts on the Greek crisis

How can a financial crisis in a small European country have such a large effect on world markets? This is the question I recently received from an investor and a friend.…

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35 Comments

The graying budget

Several years ago at a speech in New York, I warned that “a future President Clinton or McCain would face a daunting budget challenge from population aging.” My political forecast was off, but my economic and demographic forecast is unchanged.…

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Interest rates: a worry for 2010

It’s still early in the new year, and there’s lots to worry about in the investment domain and in the broader world. But one item tops my “worry list” for 2010: interest rates. And it’s hard to decide which is …

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What’s changed, and what hasn’t?

I’ve had a hard time deciding which way the economic and investment winds are blowing, so I decided to make a list of the things I think have changed and those that haven’t.…

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