There are few things that destroy an economy as thoroughly as deflation. When prices are expected to fall, spending is delayed. As spending is delayed, prices fall further. In a heavily indebted economy, the real cost of debt goes up. … Read more
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Emerging markets have been a favorite destination for global capital since the financial crisis, given the weak growth and low interest rates on offer from much of the developed world. Although they have taken a one-two punch of late from … Read more
Being comfortable with uncertainty, being prepared, and not being overconfident are essential life skills.
It is no coincidence that these skills serve as strong investment principles and help us look at the markets and economy with a healthy dose of … Read more
In the Chinese city of Ordos, empty skyscrapers loom over largely empty roads, empty town plazas, and empty schools. It’s China’s best-known ghost town. The empty buildings in Ordos and other places—started as part of an ambitious government plan to … Read more
Chief economist’s log, stardate 62014.1
Okay, everybody, don your pointy ears. We’re going to boldly go where (I’m guessing) no investment company has gone before. We’re going to talk about how wise long-term investing is like Vulcan investing.
I’ve always … Read more
In a famous experiment, psychologists Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons asked people to watch a video of people playing basketball and count the number of passes. Technically, the answer is 15, but that misses the point of the experiment. … Read more