Debate about the timing of “liftoff”—a hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate—has intensified significantly over the past few weeks, ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on September 17. Market participants are debating whether the initial increase … Read more
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I read a quip in the local paper over the weekend: The stock market takes the stairs up but the elevator down. As I felt the elevator begin its descent this week, my stomach lurched a bit, but I kept … Read more
The Bank of Japan’s latest quantitative easing program* hasn’t been very successful (so far, anyway) in pushing consumer prices higher.
The aggressive bond-buying program, launched in April 2013, was designed to jolt Japan out of more than a decade of … Read more
As of May 29, 2015, the annual return of Shanghai A-shares was a phenomenal 125%.¹ On the other hand, real GDP growth in China continues to march toward lower levels, with policymakers setting a 7% target for this year, after … Read more
Since nominal yields going out 6 years or more are currently negative in several developed markets in Europe, many investors have been asking if investing in bonds with negative yields means they are “locking in” a loss. It is a … Read more
Emerging markets have been a favorite destination for global capital since the financial crisis, given the weak growth and low interest rates on offer from much of the developed world. Although they have taken a one-two punch of late from … Read more
There are few things that destroy an economy as thoroughly as deflation. When prices are expected to fall, spending is delayed. As spending is delayed, prices fall further. In a heavily indebted economy, the real cost of debt goes up. … Read more
Just as the Federal Reserve was bracing markets for its first interest rate hike since 2006 to head off any pickup in inflation, along came the drop in the price of oil.
And it’s been a big drop—even for an … Read more