On Friday, the Commerce Department’s revision to fourth quarter GDP indicated that the U.S. economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015, consistent with our expectations. In the year ahead, growth will most likely moderate toward 2%, our estimate of its longer-term … Read more
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On June 23, voters in the United Kingdom will decide whether to remain part of the European Union or withdraw from it. The possibility of a British E.U. exit—often shortened to “Brexit”—has caused lots of noise in the press. But … Read more
While the title may raise a few eyebrows given the equity market’s rocky start to 2016, its inspiration is Glenn Frey, the legendary singer-songwriter for the Eagles, who passed away on January 18, 2016. “Take it Easy,” co-written by Frey, … Read more
“The strongest of all warriors are these two—time and patience.”
-Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Recently, there’s been a lot of talk about rising interest rates and what that means for bond investors. One “solution” (suggested mostly by active fund … Read more
Debate about the timing of “liftoff”—a hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate—has intensified significantly over the past few weeks, ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on September 17. Market participants are debating whether the initial increase … Read more
I read a quip in the local paper over the weekend: The stock market takes the stairs up but the elevator down. As I felt the elevator begin its descent this week, my stomach lurched a bit, but I kept … Read more
The Bank of Japan’s latest quantitative easing program* hasn’t been very successful (so far, anyway) in pushing consumer prices higher.
The aggressive bond-buying program, launched in April 2013, was designed to jolt Japan out of more than a decade of … Read more
As of May 29, 2015, the annual return of Shanghai A-shares was a phenomenal 125%.¹ On the other hand, real GDP growth in China continues to march toward lower levels, with policymakers setting a 7% target for this year, after … Read more