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Recent blog posts by Joe Davis
Global bond yields hover near all-time lows. In the United States, a 10-year Treasury note yields less than 2%. In Europe and Japan, the bond markets have tumbled through the looking glass into a world of negative interest rates. About … Read more
At the start of 2016, global stock markets plummeted, rattled by China, oil, and fears that the Federal Reserve was dangerously out of step with monetary policies in Asia and Europe. The turmoil fueled speculation that the United States might … Read more
On Friday, the Commerce Department’s revision to fourth quarter GDP indicated that the U.S. economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015, consistent with our expectations. In the year ahead, growth will most likely moderate toward 2%, our estimate of its longer-term … Read more
Debate about the timing of “liftoff”—a hike of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate—has intensified significantly over the past few weeks, ahead of the Federal Reserve statement on September 17. Market participants are debating whether the initial increase … Read more
Since nominal yields going out 6 years or more are currently negative in several developed markets in Europe, many investors have been asking if investing in bonds with negative yields means they are “locking in” a loss. It is a … Read more
Emerging markets have been a favorite destination for global capital since the financial crisis, given the weak growth and low interest rates on offer from much of the developed world. Although they have taken a one-two punch of late from … Read more